Deputy Chief of Iran’s Armed Forces Gen.
Mohammad Hejazi issued a new threat Tuesday, Feb. 21: “Our strategy now
is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national
interests… we will act without waiting for their actions.” An Iranian preemptive attack on Israel has
been in the air for some weeks. It became realistic because the dragging
out of the argument between Washington and Jerusalem over a military
strike and the two government’s indecisiveness gave Tehran a golden
opportunity to further its interests.
It bestowed on Iran the gift of entering into talks on its nuclear
program with the six world powers (P5 plus 1) free of a military threat
and therefore in a superior bargaining position. For openers, Tehran has
already pocketed the Obama administration’s promise of permission to
continue to enrich uranium up to 5 percent in any quantity and will be
more than ready to lay down more demands. Gen. Hejazi’s threat of a preemptive strike against Israel also serves
the Islamic regime in its run-up to a general election on March 3.
It
aims to show the Iranian voter and Middle East public that Iran has
successfully turned US and Israeli aggression against Iran against them
and demonstrated they are no more than paper tigers incapable of
carrying through on their rhetoric. The military initiative therefore
stays in Iran’s hands. In Tehran, the standard Israeli cliché of “We don’t’ advise anyone to test our resolve” has worn thin. By letting two Iranian warships bearing arms for Assad pass Israel’s
coast on its way to Tartus without interference, Israel encouraged
Tehran to assume that, in the last reckoning, it will abstain from a
unilateral strike to eradicate Iran’s nuclear facilities without
Washington’s blessing.
The Netanyahu government’s resolve is expected to melt away under the
bulldozer assault of one American emissary after another touching down
at Ben-Gurion airport to corner them into backing down. Once Israel lets its hands be tied, Tehran calculates, it will become
progressively harder to break them loose, so that if Tehran does carry
out a limited “preemptive” missile attack on the Jewish state, Jerusalem
will again bow to Washington and let itself be coerced into not
responding.
Thursday, Feb. 23, US National Director of Intelligence James Clapper
arrives in Israel to tackle its military and intelligence chiefs on the
question, after US National Defense Director Tom Donilon spent three
days in fruitless discussions with government leaders Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Gen. Martin Dempsey,
Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff tried his hand at persuasion earlier
this month.
This cycle of pressure will peak with Netanyahu’s White
House talks with President Obama on March 5.
The Iranians felt confident enough to safely deny requests from the
team of IAEA inspectors who arrived in Tehran Monday for access to suspect
nuclear locations and meetings with scientists employed in their nuclear
program. Gen. Hejazi’s words were backed up by a four-day air defense exercise,
dubbed Sarallah (God’s Revenge), in the south of the country. The
Islamic Republic also took another initiative by cutting off oil exports
to Britain and France and so turning the tables on the European Union’s
oil embargo on Tehran.
